Good News
The Fourth and First Turnings
A core purpose of this blog is to encourage its readers to realize history tends to rhyme with itself over time. Rhyming history is not something we are likely to be considering through the day to day and week to week of life. Rather, looking back in history to see the future is a very big picture perspective we don’t make time for. Or maybe we don’t even want to think about it.
Human recency bias causes our instincts to think about the future as being the same as the recent past. For periods of a decade or two that can be true. But in other periods – like this one – that is far from the truth. American demographer Neil Howe researched and co-authored The Fourth Turning in the 1990’s and followed up with The Fourth Turning is Here in 2023. In both books, the purpose is to evaluate 500 years of American history.
Howe has identified a repetitive cycle occurring every four generations with a total cycle time of 80 to 100 years. The stages (generations) of the cycle can be considered in terms of spring, summer, fall, and winter. Based on his work, he has determined we are currently in the fourth/winter/crisis stage of the cycle, with a transition into the first/spring/high stage in more or less ten years.
So, what’s the Good News?
The spring high will certainly follow winter crisis. Spring will be a period of greater financial and social equality across the population. Spring will bring a greater feeling of community and willingness to work together on big national purposes. Family life and children are always celebrated in first turnings. More generally, optimism will prevail over pessimism.
I have read both Fourth Turning books and recommend them if you have any interest (beyond this blog) in having a big picture view of the near future. If a whole book seems too much, you can find dozens of YouTube interviews – lasting an hour typically - where Howe describes the generational cycle and/or thoughts on how to prepare for it. I encourage you to do some research of your own rather than take my word for it. Be Prepared by investing in your knowledge.
PS. The ongoing blog subject area is focused on Being Prepared for historical cycles like the Fourth Turning, so the blogs tend to be a discussion of depressing, negative financial outcomes. I don’t want readers to think I’m negative. Rather, my approach is to “prepare for the worst, and hope for the best”. The intent of this specific Good News blog is to remind readers about the positive side of historical rhymes. Spring is coming! I hope you take it to heart.